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War with Armenia

rockfox said:
Why is Russia treating Turkey with kid gloves here? This is their ally under attack.
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Turkey's a big military power, and I believe Russia would sincerely like to avoid having an even larger war. But also, Armenia has been turning away from Russia and drawing closer to the West following political changes in the last few years, which will dissuade Russia from coming to their aid too quickly.

Russia is laying a line in the sand and saying they will defend Armenia proper if the country is invaded, but are not offering to defend Nagorno-Karabakh. This is an understandable position that is a delicate balancing act.
 
FollowingHim said:
Turkey's a big military power, and I believe Russia would sincerely like to avoid having an even larger war. But also, Armenia has been turning away from Russia and drawing closer to the West following political changes in the last few years, which will dissuade Russia from coming to their aid too quickly.

Russia is laying a line in the sand and saying they will defend Armenia proper if the country is invaded, but are not offering to defend Nagorno-Karabakh. This is an understandable position that is a delicate balancing act.
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Is anyone shipping arms to Armenia? The public statements are only half of it, what kind of surreptitious support are they getting atm? That is where the real truth of who supports who lies.
 
I thought of this thread when I ran across this roundup of the war now that there seems to be a durable cease fire. It's a ridiculously pro-russian perspective, but interesting nonetheless.

https://thesaker.is/understanding-the-outcome-of-the-war-for-nagorno-karabakh/

Here is the ridiculously pro-Western version: https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...st-nagorno-karabakh-truce-terms-for-a-3rd-day

This war was marked most by the use of drones, promising to be a game changer in warfare for small states: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...0-94-and-showed-future-of-warfare/ar-BB1aV9ta
 
Spoke with an Armenian yesterday. He seems to think its all about oil and Russia is looking to take advantage of it while screwing the Azerbajianis and Armenians in the process (promising to use their extraction technology "for a fee").

Just reporting, not theorizing myself.
 
Putin (Russia) is all about rebuilding the Soviet empire. I'd look for Russia to invade and annex Armenia and Azerbaijan before this decade comes to an end. Maybe even next year because with the Armenian and Azerbaijani militaries currently spent from fighting this would be a good time for the Russians to swoop in as peacekeepers. And then never leave.
 
MeganC said:
this would be a good time for the Russians to swoop in as peacekeepers
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They have come in as peacekeepers, see the above articles shared by @rockfox. Russian troops now have control of the key transportation routes in the region, and will do for the next 5 years.

Where it gets very interesting is that Putin has now revealed that Russia offered to step in as peacekeepers a month ago, back when Armenia remained in control of basically the entire region. Azerbaijan agreed with conditions that, in hindsight, now seem relatively minor, but Armenia refused the offer and chose to keep fighting. They only agreed to let Russia step in weeks later, once they'd lost half the territory. This massive defeat could have been prevented had they been humble enough to seek Russian assistance earlier.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/putin...peacekeepers-weeks-before-the-fall-of-shushi/

There is a lot of talk about Armenia's PM making the wrong decision due to Western influence. He's now in hiding and fears for his life - the Armenian people are extremely angry with him.
 
FollowingHim said:
They have come in as peacekeepers, see the above articles shared by @rockfox. Russian troops now have control of the key transportation routes in the region, and will do for the next 5 years.

Where it gets very interesting is that Putin has now revealed that Russia offered to step in as peacekeepers a month ago, back when Armenia remained in control of basically the entire region. Azerbaijan agreed with conditions that, in hindsight, now seem relatively minor, but Armenia refused the offer and chose to keep fighting. They only agreed to let Russia step in weeks later, once they'd lost half the territory. This massive defeat could have been prevented had they been humble enough to seek Russian assistance earlier.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/putin...peacekeepers-weeks-before-the-fall-of-shushi/

There is a lot of talk about Armenia's PM making the wrong decision due to Western influence. He's now in hiding and fears for his life - the Armenian people are extremely angry with him.
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Note: I realize I have an anti Putin bias.

I wouldn't put it past the Russians from stoking the flames prior to the dispute and during the dispute.
I makes it all that easier to come in later when it gets out of hand to establish what they were truly after to begin with.

"Never let a crisis (manufactured or otherwise) go to waste!"
 
Azerbaijan has a history of destroying Armenian historical monuments. They have destroyed 28,000 such monuments, including churches, in their current territory. The land they have now captured includes many important ancient churches, monasteries, and Christian monuments, some almost 2000 years old. It is probable that Azerbaijan will destroy most of these.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/cultural-еrasure-мay-spark-the-next-nagorno-karabakh-war/
This has already begun, despite Russia's attempts to stop it.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/watch...-for-respect-of-christian-shrines-in-artsakh/
 
Mojo said:
Note: I realize I have an anti Putin bias.

I wouldn't put it past the Russians from stoking the flames prior to the dispute and during the dispute.
I makes it all that easier to come in later when it gets out of hand to establish what they were truly after to begin with.

"Never let a crisis (manufactured or otherwise) go to waste!"
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There is a lot of serious speculation in the other direction - that Armenia's pro-Western leadership may have deliberately allowed this area to be lost, by withholding the support of the main Armenian military and refusing to seek Russian assistance until it was too late.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/five-main-mysteries-of-the-second-karabakh-war/
 
FollowingHim said:
Azerbaijan has a history of destroying Armenian historical monuments. They have destroyed 28,000 such monuments, including churches, in their current territory. The land they have now captured includes many important ancient churches, monasteries, and Christian monuments, some almost 2000 years old. It is probable that Azerbaijan will destroy most of these.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/cultural-еrasure-мay-spark-the-next-nagorno-karabakh-war/
This has already begun, despite Russia's attempts to stop it.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/11/watch...-for-respect-of-christian-shrines-in-artsakh/
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Actions which will surely be seen through the lens of the Armenian Genocide (perpetrated by the same party now supporting their enemy in war) and history destruction of monuments by Islamist's and genocidal parties. It sure looks like a fight for their existence.
 
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