So what are we likely to see going forward? It really wasn't clear at all at first - Israel obviously had to respond, but eliminating Hamas would still leave them with the problem of 2 million angry Palestinians in Gaza who'd probably just create a new Hamas to replace them. But there does appear to be a longer-term plan that is being gradually drip-fed into the media in small enough doses that it can be gradually accepted, because if it were introduced all at once there would be uproar.
It appears that Israel's plan is to ethnically cleanse Gaza, pushing out all the Arabs into tent cities in the Sinai, likely telling the world this is "temporary" - but they'll never actually return. Then take all of Gaza for Israel, thus eliminating the Gaza threat once and for all. An official government document stating that this is the preferred option has been leaked to the media.
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
When Netanyahu announced the start of the ground operation over the weekend, he specifically referred to 1 Samuel 15:2-3:
"Thus saith the LORD of hosts, I remember
that which Amalek did to Israel, how he laid
wait for him in the way, when he came up from Egypt.
Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass."
Netanyahu is clearly stating that the plan is much larger than just "crush Hamas", but involves plans for the civilian population also (Arab media is jumping to the conclusion that the plan is literal genocide as per v3, but I think it is more reasonable to take it figuratively, in that the plan does involve doing something to the civilian population but not necessarily exactly what was decreed to do to Amalek).
Now, this all relies on Egypt agreeing, and at this stage Egypt wants nothing to do with it and will not accept Gazan refugees, for a host of reasons. But the bombing campaign may force the issue, by making Gaza unliveable. Once enough infrastructure is destroyed, Egypt will come under pressure from not only Israel but the Gazan population and the Arab world in general to accept the Gazan population as refugees and allow those tent cities to be built. And the Gazan population, who at present would obviously prefer to live in their own homes than in a tent and would largely refuse to leave, may also see this as the lesser of two evils if their own homes no longer exist. So a campaign to destroy Gazan infrastructure is a crucial element to achieve this goal.
So I think we will see two things happening simultaneously:
- A very high risk military operation against Hamas, involving regular troops besieging Hamas in their tunnels, and special forces troops going underground to take them out and try to rescue hostages. Many IDF troops will die in this incredibly difficult task.
- An ongoing bombardment of civilian infrastructure, always with the excuse that a Hamas person was there (which nobody can ever verify), the end result of which will be that Gaza becomes completely unliveable.
This will likely take a very long time. The big question is whether Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Turkey and possibly others follow through with their bellicose rhetoric and start a regional war. If that happens, all predictions become obsolete. But if there is no war the current direction things are heading is for Israel to gradually obliterate then take over Gaza.
